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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+3.47vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University0.94+8.60vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.07+3.29vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+0.46vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.27+4.19vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82+1.17vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.88+0.05vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University0.85+2.79vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.09+0.87vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.90-3.15vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.78-3.69vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute0.94-1.29vs Predicted
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13University of Texas0.19+0.84vs Predicted
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14Washington College0.15-0.30vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College0.76-3.77vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia-0.43-0.38vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-0.12-2.49vs Predicted
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18Villanova University-0.08-3.45vs Predicted
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19Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67-2.69vs Predicted
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20Princeton University-0.35-4.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.47U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.2%1st Place
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10.6Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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6.29Tufts University2.070.1%1st Place
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4.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.2%1st Place
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9.19University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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7.17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.1%1st Place
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7.05University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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10.79Jacksonville University0.850.0%1st Place
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9.87SUNY Maritime College1.090.0%1st Place
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6.85Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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7.31Fordham University1.780.1%1st Place
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10.71Webb Institute0.940.0%1st Place
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13.84University of Texas0.190.0%1st Place
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13.7Washington College0.150.0%1st Place
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11.23SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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15.62University of Virginia-0.430.0%1st Place
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14.51SUNY Stony Brook-0.120.0%1st Place
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14.55Villanova University-0.080.0%1st Place
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16.31Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
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15.5Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 17.7% | 14.7% | 14.3% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew King | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Connor Sheridan | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 17.8% | 15.8% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| William Weinbecker | 6.7% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 6.1% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefanos Pappas | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
| John Vail | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Shea Smith | 6.3% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Beckett Kumler | 7.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Evan Spalding | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Theresa McComiskey | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 5.5% |
| Jonathan Kelly | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 5.8% |
| Ben Hosford | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Maxwell Penders | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 20.9% |
| Kristin Hess | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 10.7% |
| Jack Murray | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 11.3% |
| Kayla Maguire | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 17.7% | 25.7% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 14.3% | 17.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.