← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+3.61vs Predicted
-
2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82+5.28vs Predicted
-
3Webb Institute1.69+4.85vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+0.64vs Predicted
-
5Fordham University1.78+2.36vs Predicted
-
6Tufts University2.07+0.42vs Predicted
-
7SUNY Maritime College1.09+3.36vs Predicted
-
8University of Pennsylvania1.88-1.13vs Predicted
-
9Tufts University1.90-2.13vs Predicted
-
10University of Vermont1.27-0.65vs Predicted
-
11SUNY Maritime College0.76+0.40vs Predicted
-
12University of Texas0.19+1.72vs Predicted
-
13Princeton University-0.35+2.66vs Predicted
-
14Villanova University-0.08+0.46vs Predicted
-
15University of Virginia-0.43+0.52vs Predicted
-
16Washington College0.15-2.40vs Predicted
-
17SUNY Stony Brook-0.55-1.13vs Predicted
-
18Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67-1.61vs Predicted
-
19Jacksonville University0.85-8.05vs Predicted
-
20Jacksonville University0.94-9.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.2%1st Place
-
7.28U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.1%1st Place
-
7.85Webb Institute1.690.1%1st Place
-
4.64U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.2%1st Place
-
7.36Fordham University1.780.1%1st Place
-
6.42Tufts University2.070.1%1st Place
-
10.36SUNY Maritime College1.090.0%1st Place
-
6.87University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
-
6.87Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
-
9.35University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
-
11.4SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
-
13.72University of Texas0.190.0%1st Place
-
15.66Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
-
14.46Villanova University-0.080.0%1st Place
-
15.52University of Virginia-0.430.0%1st Place
-
13.6Washington College0.150.0%1st Place
-
15.87SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
-
16.39Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
-
10.95Jacksonville University0.850.0%1st Place
-
10.82Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 16.5% | 14.6% | 14.3% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Weinbecker | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 7.2% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 16.5% | 15.0% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Beckett Kumler | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Connor Sheridan | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Vail | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Madeleine Rice | 6.7% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Ben Hosford | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Theresa McComiskey | 1.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 4.5% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 14.9% | 14.7% | 16.3% |
| Jack Murray | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 9.7% |
| Maxwell Penders | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 16.7% | 17.2% |
| Jonathan Kelly | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 7.9% | 5.1% |
| Ryan Magill | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 15.5% | 19.1% |
| Kayla Maguire | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 17.1% | 25.8% |
| Stefanos Pappas | 3.4% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Matthew King | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.