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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Jacksonville University0.94+9.69vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.07+4.28vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+1.59vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College1.09+6.01vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.90+1.85vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University0.85+5.16vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.88+0.21vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont1.27+1.17vs Predicted
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9Villanova University-0.08+5.51vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-2.76vs Predicted
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11Princeton University-0.35+4.50vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67+4.66vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.12+1.99vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.78-6.70vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute0.94-4.37vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia-0.43-0.29vs Predicted
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17University of Texas0.65-5.29vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College0.76-6.47vs Predicted
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19Washington College0.15-5.37vs Predicted
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20Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-15.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.69Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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6.28Tufts University2.070.1%1st Place
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4.59U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.2%1st Place
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10.01SUNY Maritime College1.090.0%1st Place
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6.85Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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11.16Jacksonville University0.850.0%1st Place
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7.21University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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9.17University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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14.51Villanova University-0.080.0%1st Place
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7.24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.1%1st Place
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15.5Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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16.66Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
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14.99SUNY Stony Brook-0.120.0%1st Place
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7.3Fordham University1.780.1%1st Place
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10.63Webb Institute0.940.0%1st Place
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15.71University of Virginia-0.430.0%1st Place
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11.71University of Texas0.650.0%1st Place
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11.53SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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13.63Washington College0.150.0%1st Place
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4.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew King | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Connor Sheridan | 9.3% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 17.3% | 14.1% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Vail | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Shea Smith | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefanos Pappas | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 1.3% |
| Madeleine Rice | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jack Murray | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 8.6% |
| William Weinbecker | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 16.4% | 17.1% |
| Kayla Maguire | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 16.7% | 31.8% |
| Kristin Hess | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 14.5% | 13.5% | 11.7% |
| Beckett Kumler | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Evan Spalding | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% |
| Maxwell Penders | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 16.9% | 19.2% |
| Karina Bertelsmann | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 1.2% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 1.2% |
| Jonathan Kelly | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 5.6% |
| Will Murray | 17.0% | 13.4% | 14.3% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.