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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.07+5.51vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University0.94+8.88vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.63+1.78vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+0.71vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82+2.44vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.88+1.20vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont1.27+2.84vs Predicted
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8Rochester Institute of Technology-0.67+8.16vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College0.76+2.45vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.90-2.89vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University0.85+0.25vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College1.09-1.63vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia0.32+0.46vs Predicted
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14University of Texas0.65-2.05vs Predicted
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15Princeton University-0.35+0.27vs Predicted
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16Villanova University-1.80+2.49vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.15-3.37vs Predicted
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18SUNY Stony Brook-0.55-2.01vs Predicted
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19University of South Florida2.25-13.17vs Predicted
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20Fordham University1.78-12.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.51Tufts University2.070.1%1st Place
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10.88Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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4.78U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.630.2%1st Place
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4.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.2%1st Place
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7.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.1%1st Place
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7.2University of Pennsylvania1.880.1%1st Place
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9.84University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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16.16Rochester Institute of Technology-0.670.0%1st Place
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11.45SUNY Maritime College0.760.0%1st Place
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7.11Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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11.25Jacksonville University0.850.0%1st Place
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10.37SUNY Maritime College1.090.0%1st Place
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13.46University of Virginia0.320.0%1st Place
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11.95University of Texas0.650.0%1st Place
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15.27Princeton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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18.49Villanova University-1.800.0%1st Place
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13.63Washington College0.150.0%1st Place
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15.99SUNY Stony Brook-0.550.0%1st Place
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5.83University of South Florida2.250.1%1st Place
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7.68Fordham University1.780.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Sheridan | 8.7% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew King | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 15.7% | 14.5% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 15.6% | 15.6% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Weinbecker | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madeleine Rice | 6.7% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kayla Maguire | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 11.9% | 15.0% | 21.8% | 13.4% |
| Ben Hosford | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Shea Smith | 6.0% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefanos Pappas | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| John Vail | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Emma Sullivan | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 6.7% | 1.9% |
| Karina Bertelsmann | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Bryan Lawrence | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 15.4% | 17.7% | 8.4% |
| Julia Priebke | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 7.5% | 15.4% | 59.4% |
| Jonathan Kelly | 1.9% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 2.5% |
| Ryan Magill | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 16.5% | 20.3% | 12.7% |
| Jensen McTighe | 11.4% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Beckett Kumler | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.