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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College2.82+5.54vs Predicted
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2North Carolina State University2.54+5.56vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University1.72+7.66vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.81+2.40vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.83+1.30vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57+5.01vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.03+2.26vs Predicted
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8Washington College2.11+0.88vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.12-3.74vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont1.11+2.65vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.69-0.35vs Predicted
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12Brown University2.36-3.68vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College2.07-3.97vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.13-5.38vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.27-3.00vs Predicted
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16Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.60+0.48vs Predicted
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17Clemson University-0.58-0.56vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island3.23-13.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.54Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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7.56North Carolina State University2.540.1%1st Place
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10.66Northeastern University1.720.0%1st Place
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6.4Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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6.3Tufts University2.830.1%1st Place
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11.01U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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9.26University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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8.88Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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5.26Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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12.65University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
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10.65Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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8.32Brown University2.360.1%1st Place
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9.03Dartmouth College2.070.1%1st Place
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8.62Roger Williams University2.130.1%1st Place
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12.0University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
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16.48Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.600.0%1st Place
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16.44Clemson University-0.580.0%1st Place
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4.94University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Whittemore | 9.3% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Scott Harris | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Matt Hersey | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Hall | 10.2% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 10.1% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 4.7% | 1.0% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Jack Egan | 12.7% | 12.9% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 17.6% | 11.9% | 3.3% |
| Noah Robitshek | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 3.5% | 0.7% |
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Taylor Eastman | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Riley Read | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Andreas Keswater | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 16.0% | 9.3% | 1.9% |
| Gunnar Pierson | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 4.7% | 8.1% | 28.7% | 47.4% |
| Samantha Bialek | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 31.3% | 44.9% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 14.3% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.