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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.12+4.01vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.13+6.47vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.81+3.17vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College2.82+2.19vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island3.23-0.27vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.36+1.86vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.83-0.93vs Predicted
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8Clemson University-0.58+7.37vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida1.27+2.63vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.07-1.31vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.03-2.02vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.72-2.10vs Predicted
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13Washington College2.11-4.29vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.57-3.43vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.11-3.11vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University2.54-8.92vs Predicted
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17Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.60-1.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.01Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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8.47Roger Williams University2.130.0%1st Place
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6.17Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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6.19Connecticut College2.820.1%1st Place
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4.73University of Rhode Island3.230.2%1st Place
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7.86Brown University2.360.1%1st Place
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6.07Tufts University2.830.1%1st Place
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15.37Clemson University-0.580.0%1st Place
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11.63University of South Florida1.270.0%1st Place
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8.69Dartmouth College2.070.0%1st Place
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8.98University of Pennsylvania2.030.0%1st Place
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9.9Northeastern University1.720.0%1st Place
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8.71Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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10.57U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.570.0%1st Place
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11.89University of Vermont1.110.0%1st Place
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7.08North Carolina State University2.540.1%1st Place
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15.67Texas A&M University at Galveston-0.600.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Egan | 14.8% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Riley Read | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 10.7% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 16.3% | 15.4% | 13.6% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Zonnenberg | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Bialek | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 29.8% | 43.7% |
| Andreas Keswater | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 16.9% | 10.4% | 2.5% |
| Taylor Eastman | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Matt Hersey | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Lars Osell | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 5.2% | 0.8% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 18.5% | 12.6% | 3.0% |
| Scott Harris | 5.4% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Gunnar Pierson | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 8.4% | 30.2% | 47.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.