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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.12+3.94vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.62+4.58vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College2.46+4.16vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.45+2.93vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.45+1.97vs Predicted
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6North Carolina State University2.01+2.66vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.78+2.49vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island1.73+1.60vs Predicted
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9Clemson University1.34+2.14vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.06+2.37vs Predicted
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11Boston University0.72+2.28vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.59+1.89vs Predicted
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13Brown University2.22-5.28vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.38-7.00vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.83-9.35vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont1.32-4.67vs Predicted
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17University of South Florida1.37-5.82vs Predicted
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18Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.37-0.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.94Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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6.58Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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7.16Connecticut College2.460.1%1st Place
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6.93Dartmouth College2.450.1%1st Place
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6.97Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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8.66North Carolina State University2.010.1%1st Place
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9.49Northeastern University1.780.0%1st Place
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9.6University of Rhode Island1.730.0%1st Place
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11.14Clemson University1.340.0%1st Place
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12.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.060.0%1st Place
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13.28Boston University0.720.0%1st Place
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13.89Washington College0.590.0%1st Place
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7.72Brown University2.220.1%1st Place
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7.0Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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5.65University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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11.33University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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11.18University of South Florida1.370.0%1st Place
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17.12Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mia Nicolosi | 13.9% | 15.1% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Davis | 7.4% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Walter Henry | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 8.7% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Adam Larson | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Caleb Niles | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Zachary Champney | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| William Turner | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 0.6% |
| Aidan Brown | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 14.1% | 13.5% | 2.5% |
| William Wiegand | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 16.4% | 20.2% | 5.7% |
| Camden Ward | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 15.1% | 26.3% | 8.6% |
| Jed Bell | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Mathieu Dale | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Jordan Bruce | 11.8% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.7% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 1.4% |
| Humberto Porrata | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 1.0% |
| Brandon Foster | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 7.3% | 79.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.