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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.12+3.56vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College2.46+4.72vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.45+3.84vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.73+5.45vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.83+0.48vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.22+1.84vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont1.32+3.91vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.38-1.00vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.45-1.98vs Predicted
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10Washington College0.59+3.13vs Predicted
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11North Carolina State University2.01-2.46vs Predicted
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12Clemson University1.34-1.21vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.78-3.58vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida1.37-3.14vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.06-3.29vs Predicted
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16Tufts University2.62-9.70vs Predicted
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17Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.37-0.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.56Yale University3.120.2%1st Place
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6.72Connecticut College2.460.1%1st Place
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6.84Dartmouth College2.450.1%1st Place
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9.45University of Rhode Island1.730.0%1st Place
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5.48University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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7.84Brown University2.220.1%1st Place
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10.91University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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7.0Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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7.02Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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13.13Washington College0.590.0%1st Place
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8.54North Carolina State University2.010.1%1st Place
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10.79Clemson University1.340.0%1st Place
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9.42Northeastern University1.780.0%1st Place
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10.86University of South Florida1.370.0%1st Place
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11.71U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.060.0%1st Place
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6.3Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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16.44Texas A&M University at Galveston-1.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mia Nicolosi | 17.4% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Walter Henry | 8.4% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Champney | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 0.7% |
| Jordan Bruce | 12.7% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jed Bell | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 14.3% | 9.1% | 2.0% |
| Mathieu Dale | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Camden Ward | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 15.1% | 28.4% | 7.3% |
| Adam Larson | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| William Turner | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 2.4% |
| Caleb Niles | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 1.2% |
| Humberto Porrata | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 10.6% | 1.4% |
| Aidan Brown | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 15.1% | 17.0% | 2.7% |
| Trevor Davis | 7.7% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Brandon Foster | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 8.2% | 81.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.