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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.70+3.81vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.55+3.25vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.74+5.23vs Predicted
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4Tulane University2.16+2.77vs Predicted
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5Boston University1.44+4.14vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.30+0.40vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University1.65+1.58vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.41-2.19vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.28+1.02vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University0.67+1.98vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara1.10-0.31vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.76-0.29vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.77-4.78vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.40-8.00vs Predicted
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15University of Miami0.67-3.03vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College0.68-3.89vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin-0.60-1.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.81Bowdoin College2.700.2%1st Place
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5.25Georgetown University2.550.1%1st Place
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8.23U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.740.1%1st Place
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6.77Tulane University2.160.1%1st Place
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9.14Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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6.4Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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8.58Jacksonville University1.650.1%1st Place
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5.81Brown University2.410.1%1st Place
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10.02Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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11.98Northeastern University0.670.0%1st Place
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10.69University of California at Santa Barbara1.100.0%1st Place
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11.71University of Vermont0.760.0%1st Place
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8.22Tufts University1.770.1%1st Place
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6.0U. S. Naval Academy2.400.1%1st Place
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11.97University of Miami0.670.0%1st Place
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12.11SUNY Maritime College0.680.0%1st Place
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15.32University of Wisconsin-0.600.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 15.9% | 14.5% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 12.6% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% |
| Caroline Benson | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 1.8% |
| Sarah Burn | 8.9% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Emily Allen | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 0.6% |
| Caroline Bayless | 11.0% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 5.4% | 2.6% |
| Ashley Arruda | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 15.5% | 7.3% |
| Molly Coghlin | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 3.1% |
| Audrey Commerford | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 15.3% | 6.8% |
| Abbie Carlson | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Eva Blauvelt | 9.5% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Leah Harper | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 14.0% | 16.2% | 7.8% |
| Marleigh Henehan | 2.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 14.3% | 12.9% | 9.8% |
| Sophie Lusty | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 11.9% | 58.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.