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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+6.13vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University1.75+10.80vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.94+4.94vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.71+4.46vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.93-0.73vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+3.03vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.38-0.97vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.68+0.66vs Predicted
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9University of Miami2.07+2.25vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin2.24+0.86vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.91+0.94vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont2.11-0.55vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.94-5.46vs Predicted
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14Boston College3.01-6.87vs Predicted
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15Hampton University1.77-2.70vs Predicted
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16Tufts University2.61-6.90vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College1.70-4.22vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73-5.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.13Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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12.8Jacksonville University1.750.0%1st Place
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7.94Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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8.46University of California at Santa Barbara2.710.1%1st Place
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4.27Yale University3.930.2%1st Place
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9.03U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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6.03Georgetown University3.380.1%1st Place
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8.66George Washington University2.680.1%1st Place
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11.25University of Miami2.070.0%1st Place
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10.86University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
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11.94Old Dominion University1.910.0%1st Place
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11.45University of Vermont2.110.0%1st Place
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7.54Bowdoin College2.940.1%1st Place
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7.13Boston College3.010.1%1st Place
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12.3Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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9.1Tufts University2.610.0%1st Place
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12.78Eckerd College1.700.0%1st Place
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12.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Vickers | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 15.5% |
| Cameron Giblin | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| David Eastwood | 5.4% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% |
| Shawn Harvey | 20.8% | 17.3% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.3% |
| Jack Reiter | 10.4% | 12.5% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Matt Logue | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% |
| Richard McCann | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 6.6% |
| Samuel Bartel | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% |
| Bridget Groble | 3.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 10.8% |
| Connell Phillipps | 2.6% | 2.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.8% |
| Alden Grimes | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Jack DeNatale | 7.2% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Valerio Palamara | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 14.9% |
| Samuel Merson | 4.9% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 2.0% |
| matthew Monts | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 16.4% |
| John McKenna | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 12.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.