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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.93+3.45vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.94+5.85vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.61+6.32vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont2.11+6.93vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara2.71+3.61vs Predicted
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6Hampton University1.77+6.43vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.94+0.67vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.38-2.04vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin2.24+1.58vs Predicted
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10Eckerd College1.70+2.89vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.68-2.10vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14-4.74vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University1.75-0.68vs Predicted
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14Boston College3.01-6.86vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60-6.06vs Predicted
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16University of Miami2.07-4.69vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University1.91-4.96vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73-5.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.45Yale University3.930.2%1st Place
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7.85Bowdoin College2.940.1%1st Place
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9.32Tufts University2.610.0%1st Place
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10.93University of Vermont2.110.0%1st Place
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8.61University of California at Santa Barbara2.710.1%1st Place
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12.43Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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7.67Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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5.96Georgetown University3.380.1%1st Place
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10.58University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
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12.89Eckerd College1.700.0%1st Place
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8.9George Washington University2.680.1%1st Place
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7.26Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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12.32Jacksonville University1.750.0%1st Place
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7.14Boston College3.010.1%1st Place
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8.94U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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11.31University of Miami2.070.0%1st Place
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12.04Old Dominion University1.910.0%1st Place
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12.41U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Harvey | 18.2% | 15.5% | 14.5% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alden Grimes | 5.5% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Samuel Merson | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Connell Phillipps | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% |
| David Eastwood | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 15.5% |
| Cameron Giblin | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Jack Reiter | 11.7% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Bartel | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.8% |
| matthew Monts | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 13.9% | 17.0% |
| Matt Logue | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| Jake Vickers | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 14.0% |
| Jack DeNatale | 7.1% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Daniel Unangst | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| Richard McCann | 2.8% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.0% |
| Bridget Groble | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 10.9% |
| John McKenna | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 14.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.