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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.38+5.22vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.93+2.33vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.71+5.73vs Predicted
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4Tulane University2.94+3.55vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.14+1.85vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University1.75+6.34vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+1.96vs Predicted
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8University of Miami2.07+3.10vs Predicted
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9Boston College3.01-1.82vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.94-2.16vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin2.24-0.41vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.61-2.75vs Predicted
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13George Washington University2.68-4.48vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont2.11-3.39vs Predicted
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15Hampton University1.77-2.74vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.73-3.47vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College1.12-2.39vs Predicted
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18Old Dominion University1.93-6.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.22Georgetown University3.380.1%1st Place
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4.33Yale University3.930.2%1st Place
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8.73University of California at Santa Barbara2.710.0%1st Place
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7.55Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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6.85Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.140.1%1st Place
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12.34Jacksonville University1.750.0%1st Place
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8.96U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.0%1st Place
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11.1University of Miami2.070.0%1st Place
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7.18Boston College3.010.1%1st Place
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7.84Bowdoin College2.940.1%1st Place
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10.59University of Wisconsin2.240.0%1st Place
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9.25Tufts University2.610.0%1st Place
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8.52George Washington University2.680.1%1st Place
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10.61University of Vermont2.110.0%1st Place
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12.26Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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12.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.730.0%1st Place
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14.61Eckerd College1.120.0%1st Place
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11.54Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Reiter | 10.9% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Shawn Harvey | 15.4% | 16.6% | 16.2% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Eastwood | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Cameron Giblin | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Jake Vickers | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Gordon Gurnell | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 10.7% |
| Daniel Unangst | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.7% |
| Richard McCann | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 5.0% |
| Jack DeNatale | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Alden Grimes | 8.3% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Samuel Bartel | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% |
| Samuel Merson | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% |
| Matt Logue | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Connell Phillipps | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 11.8% |
| John McKenna | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 13.3% |
| Griffin Richardson | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 15.0% | 34.5% |
| Parker Purrington | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 7.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.