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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.12+5.65vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.83+5.75vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.18+7.45vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64+4.17vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.22+1.07vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+3.53vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin2.65+1.26vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-0.25vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.65-0.78vs Predicted
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10University of Miami2.66-1.55vs Predicted
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11Boston College3.15-4.57vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-0.94vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University0.94+1.41vs Predicted
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14George Washington University2.63-5.95vs Predicted
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15Tulane University2.23-5.08vs Predicted
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16Eckerd College1.84-4.41vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont1.35-3.56vs Predicted
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18Hampton University0.81-3.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.65Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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7.75Tufts University2.830.1%1st Place
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10.45Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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8.17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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6.07Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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9.53University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.1%1st Place
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8.26University of Wisconsin2.650.1%1st Place
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7.75U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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8.22Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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8.45University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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6.43Boston College3.150.1%1st Place
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11.06U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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14.41Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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8.05George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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9.92Tulane University2.230.0%1st Place
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11.59Eckerd College1.840.0%1st Place
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13.44University of Vermont1.350.0%1st Place
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14.79Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Egan | 9.2% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 2.0% |
| Will Murray | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Mariner Fagan | 11.9% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Chris Kayda | 5.2% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.3% |
| Christian Spencer | 5.8% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Colman Schofield | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Lukens | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Atlee Kohl | 7.4% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.2% |
| Sophia Reineke | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Sawin | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 3.9% |
| Matthew King | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 17.2% | 30.2% |
| Cameron Feves | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Asher Zittrer | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 2.2% |
| Sean Tallman | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 6.2% |
| Nicholas Salvesen | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 10.3% | 12.6% | 17.2% | 16.6% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 12.2% | 19.1% | 32.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.