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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.63+7.54vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.83+5.73vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin2.65+5.49vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+5.42vs Predicted
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5Boston College3.15+1.34vs Predicted
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6Eckerd College1.84+5.58vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University3.22-0.93vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.12-1.64vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-0.78vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76-1.95vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.23-0.91vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.18-1.50vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-2.45vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College2.65-5.98vs Predicted
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15University of Miami2.66-6.82vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University0.94-1.31vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont1.35-3.64vs Predicted
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18Hampton University0.81-3.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.54George Washington University2.630.1%1st Place
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7.73Tufts University2.830.1%1st Place
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8.49University of Wisconsin2.650.1%1st Place
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9.42University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.0%1st Place
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6.34Boston College3.150.1%1st Place
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11.58Eckerd College1.840.0%1st Place
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6.07Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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6.36Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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8.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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8.05U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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10.09Tulane University2.230.0%1st Place
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10.5Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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10.55U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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8.02Bowdoin College2.650.1%1st Place
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8.18University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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14.69Jacksonville University0.940.0%1st Place
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13.36University of Vermont1.350.0%1st Place
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14.81Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Feves | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Christian Spencer | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Chris Kayda | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Sophia Reineke | 10.1% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Sean Tallman | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 6.7% |
| Mariner Fagan | 10.8% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jack Egan | 10.4% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Will Murray | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Colman Schofield | 8.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Asher Zittrer | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 2.6% |
| Noyl Odom | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 6.0% | 2.9% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 3.3% |
| Christopher Lukens | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Matthew King | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 19.4% | 29.8% |
| Nicholas Salvesen | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 13.5% | 16.9% | 15.8% |
| Stefano Palamara | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 19.2% | 33.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.