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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.75+5.10vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.17+6.32vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94+6.30vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.49+2.79vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.69+1.11vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.49+0.87vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.04+1.62vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island2.07+0.42vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.69+1.04vs Predicted
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10Boston College1.77-0.04vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.31-3.32vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.76-1.89vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.72-3.23vs Predicted
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14Salve Regina University1.73-4.48vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.32-3.63vs Predicted
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16Brown University1.73-6.11vs Predicted
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17Wesleyan University-0.66-0.37vs Predicted
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18Bentley University-0.13-2.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.1Harvard University2.750.1%1st Place
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8.32Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.170.1%1st Place
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9.3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.0%1st Place
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6.79Bowdoin College2.490.1%1st Place
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6.11Yale University2.690.1%1st Place
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6.87Roger Williams University2.490.1%1st Place
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8.62Boston College2.040.1%1st Place
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8.42University of Rhode Island2.070.1%1st Place
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10.04Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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9.96Boston College1.770.0%1st Place
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7.68Brown University2.310.1%1st Place
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10.11Tufts University1.760.0%1st Place
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9.77Northeastern University1.720.0%1st Place
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9.52Salve Regina University1.730.0%1st Place
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11.37University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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9.89Brown University1.730.0%1st Place
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16.63Wesleyan University-0.660.0%1st Place
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15.52Bentley University-0.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Ascencios | 10.3% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kaila Pfrang | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Brock | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Farina | 12.9% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Grant Gridley | 9.3% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Libby Redmond | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Ben Rosenberg | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Noah Robitshek | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 0.9% |
| Sara Schumann | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 4.1% | 0.4% |
| Thomas Styron | 8.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 5.1% | 1.4% |
| Matt Hersey | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 0.5% |
| Peter Cronin | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 0.9% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 1.9% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 1.0% |
| Ned Herrington | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 19.5% | 60.8% |
| Dane Phippen | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 11.1% | 33.5% | 30.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.