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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.44+4.28vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.20+3.96vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.00+0.88vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.13+2.15vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.50+0.08vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.07+0.25vs Predicted
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7The Citadel1.11+1.93vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.25+0.66vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.34-3.36vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.90-0.41vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.74-3.93vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin1.47-3.75vs Predicted
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13Maine Maritime Academy0.72-2.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.28U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.440.1%1st Place
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5.96Bowdoin College2.200.1%1st Place
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3.88Roger Williams University3.000.2%1st Place
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6.15Boston College2.130.1%1st Place
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5.08Harvard University2.500.1%1st Place
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6.25Tufts University2.070.1%1st Place
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8.93The Citadel1.110.0%1st Place
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8.66Boston University1.250.0%1st Place
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5.64University of Rhode Island2.340.1%1st Place
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9.59University of Vermont0.900.0%1st Place
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7.07Northeastern University1.740.1%1st Place
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8.25University of Wisconsin1.470.0%1st Place
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10.27Maine Maritime Academy0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Olmsted | 10.9% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Perham Black | 8.4% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 20.4% | 17.1% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Graham Ness | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Jonas Nelle | 12.1% | 13.3% | 13.0% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Connor Sheridan | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| Gregory Walters | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 16.5% | 14.7% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 14.6% | 11.2% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 10.8% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Luke Quine | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 16.9% | 23.5% |
| Ted Bjerregaard | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 3.8% |
| Jacob Macdonald | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 8.8% |
| Mott Blair | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 17.1% | 31.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.