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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.82+2.21vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.66+3.71vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii1.94-0.02vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.42-0.04vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+1.25vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California-0.10+1.59vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.09+0.01vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis-0.43+0.34vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.50-2.85vs Predicted
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10University of Washington-0.00-2.67vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay-1.72+0.01vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-1.14-1.88vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay-1.72-1.99vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-1.80-2.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.21University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.2%1st Place
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5.71University of California at Berkeley0.660.1%1st Place
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2.98University of Hawaii1.940.3%1st Place
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3.96University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.2%1st Place
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6.25Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.1%1st Place
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7.59University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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7.01University of California at Los Angeles0.090.0%1st Place
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8.34University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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6.15University of California at San Diego0.500.1%1st Place
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7.33University of Washington-0.000.0%1st Place
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11.01California State University Monterey Bay-1.720.0%1st Place
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10.12University of California at Santa Cruz-1.140.0%1st Place
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11.01California State University Monterey Bay-1.720.0%1st Place
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11.32San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kraak | 22.6% | 22.0% | 16.7% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Cornell | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Lahr | 26.2% | 22.8% | 18.5% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 15.3% | 14.6% | 18.5% | 14.6% | 12.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 12.9% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Ian Marshall | 4.7% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 4.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.0% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 15.5% | 14.8% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Sasha Wilson | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 13.8% | 24.8% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Grant Gravallese | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 11.5% | 19.1% | 22.8% | 16.4% | 0.0% |
| Sasha Wilson | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 13.8% | 24.8% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 23.9% | 41.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.