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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.82+2.19vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii1.94+1.01vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+3.41vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+0.01vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.66+0.66vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.50+0.05vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.09+0.08vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California-0.10-0.44vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay-1.72+2.01vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-0.43-1.59vs Predicted
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11University of Washington-0.00-3.79vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay-1.72-0.99vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz-1.14-2.89vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-1.80-2.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.19University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.2%1st Place
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3.01University of Hawaii1.940.3%1st Place
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6.41Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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4.01University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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5.66University of California at Berkeley0.660.1%1st Place
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6.05University of California at San Diego0.500.1%1st Place
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7.08University of California at Los Angeles0.090.1%1st Place
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7.56University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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11.01California State University Monterey Bay-1.720.0%1st Place
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8.41University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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7.21University of Washington-0.000.0%1st Place
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11.01California State University Monterey Bay-1.720.0%1st Place
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10.11University of California at Santa Cruz-1.140.0%1st Place
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11.29San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kraak | 24.2% | 19.9% | 17.6% | 15.0% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Lahr | 25.5% | 23.8% | 16.9% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 14.8% | 16.0% | 16.4% | 13.6% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Cornell | 7.7% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 6.8% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ian Marshall | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 3.5% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 14.9% | 13.8% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Sasha Wilson | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 14.2% | 25.6% | 34.7% | 0.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 13.3% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Sasha Wilson | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 14.2% | 25.6% | 34.7% | 0.0% |
| Grant Gravallese | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 12.5% | 19.2% | 21.1% | 17.5% | 0.0% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 7.5% | 13.1% | 26.3% | 38.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.