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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Berkeley0.66+4.69vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+1.98vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego0.50+3.17vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.82-0.78vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.09+2.07vs Predicted
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6University of Hawaii1.94-3.02vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-0.79vs Predicted
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8California State University Monterey Bay-1.70+2.97vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz-1.14+0.98vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-0.43-1.63vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay-1.70-0.03vs Predicted
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12University of Washington-0.00-4.77vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California-0.10-5.19vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-1.80-2.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.69University of California at Berkeley0.660.1%1st Place
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3.98University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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6.17University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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3.22University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.2%1st Place
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7.07University of California at Los Angeles0.090.0%1st Place
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2.98University of Hawaii1.940.3%1st Place
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6.21Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.1%1st Place
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10.97California State University Monterey Bay-1.700.0%1st Place
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9.98University of California at Santa Cruz-1.140.0%1st Place
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8.37University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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10.97California State University Monterey Bay-1.700.0%1st Place
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7.23University of Washington-0.000.0%1st Place
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7.81University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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11.32San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cornell | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 14.6% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 14.9% | 15.1% | 17.3% | 16.0% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 4.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Kraak | 23.7% | 20.1% | 17.3% | 14.1% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Marshall | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Owen Lahr | 25.6% | 24.5% | 17.2% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Max Graves | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 13.0% | 26.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Grant Gravallese | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 21.3% | 21.8% | 15.6% | 0.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 11.0% | 15.0% | 13.6% | 10.2% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| Max Graves | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 13.0% | 26.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 3.7% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 7.2% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 13.2% | 24.1% | 40.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.