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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii1.94+2.01vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.82+1.17vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+0.97vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego0.50+2.13vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.66+0.61vs Predicted
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6University of Washington-0.00+1.30vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles0.09+0.04vs Predicted
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8California State University Monterey Bay-1.70+3.00vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-2.62vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz-1.14-0.02vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.43-2.72vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay-1.70-1.00vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California-0.10-5.20vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-1.80-2.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.01University of Hawaii1.940.3%1st Place
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3.17University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.2%1st Place
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3.97University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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6.13University of California at San Diego0.500.1%1st Place
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5.61University of California at Berkeley0.660.1%1st Place
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7.3University of Washington-0.000.0%1st Place
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7.04University of California at Los Angeles0.090.1%1st Place
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11.0California State University Monterey Bay-1.700.0%1st Place
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6.38Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.1%1st Place
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9.98University of California at Santa Cruz-1.140.0%1st Place
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8.28University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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11.0California State University Monterey Bay-1.700.0%1st Place
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7.8University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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11.34San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Lahr | 26.2% | 21.7% | 17.9% | 14.0% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Kraak | 23.0% | 23.0% | 17.2% | 13.7% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 14.7% | 17.1% | 15.9% | 14.1% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Will Cornell | 8.3% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 4.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ian Marshall | 5.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Max Graves | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 15.9% | 25.5% | 33.1% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Grant Gravallese | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 18.4% | 21.0% | 16.9% | 0.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 16.5% | 13.3% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Max Graves | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 15.9% | 25.5% | 33.1% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 2.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 16.4% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 7.4% | 11.0% | 24.5% | 41.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.