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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Berkeley0.66+4.74vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii1.94+0.97vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles0.09+4.18vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego0.50+2.10vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.42-1.10vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-1.14+3.95vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-0.79vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis-0.43+0.32vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California-0.10-1.36vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University-1.80+1.22vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay-1.72+0.05vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay-1.72-0.95vs Predicted
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13University of Washington-0.00-5.48vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara1.82-10.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.74University of California at Berkeley0.660.1%1st Place
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2.97University of Hawaii1.940.3%1st Place
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7.18University of California at Los Angeles0.090.0%1st Place
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6.1University of California at San Diego0.500.1%1st Place
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3.9University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.2%1st Place
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9.95University of California at Santa Cruz-1.140.0%1st Place
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6.21Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.1%1st Place
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8.32University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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7.64University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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11.22San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
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11.05California State University Monterey Bay-1.720.0%1st Place
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11.05California State University Monterey Bay-1.720.0%1st Place
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7.52University of Washington-0.000.0%1st Place
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3.21University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cornell | 5.9% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Owen Lahr | 27.4% | 20.7% | 19.6% | 12.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Marshall | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 11.9% | 13.1% | 10.5% | 13.3% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 15.9% | 17.2% | 16.3% | 14.5% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Grant Gravallese | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 17.1% | 23.4% | 15.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 7.5% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 13.7% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 22.7% | 41.8% | 0.0% |
| Sasha Wilson | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 15.0% | 25.2% | 33.0% | 0.0% |
| Sasha Wilson | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 15.0% | 25.2% | 33.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 2.7% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 13.4% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Kraak | 23.2% | 20.7% | 17.4% | 14.0% | 11.7% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.