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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+2.98vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.82+1.20vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii1.94-0.04vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.66+1.78vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.09+2.06vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.50+0.12vs Predicted
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7University of California at Davis-0.43+1.28vs Predicted
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8University of Washington-0.00-0.63vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay-1.72+2.05vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz-1.14-0.08vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-4.87vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California-0.10-4.18vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay-1.72-1.95vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-1.80-2.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.98University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.2%1st Place
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3.2University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.2%1st Place
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2.96University of Hawaii1.940.3%1st Place
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5.78University of California at Berkeley0.660.1%1st Place
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7.06University of California at Los Angeles0.090.0%1st Place
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6.12University of California at San Diego0.500.1%1st Place
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8.28University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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7.37University of Washington-0.000.0%1st Place
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11.05California State University Monterey Bay-1.720.0%1st Place
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9.92University of California at Santa Cruz-1.140.0%1st Place
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6.13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.1%1st Place
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7.82University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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11.05California State University Monterey Bay-1.720.0%1st Place
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11.31San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 16.7% | 15.3% | 14.8% | 15.0% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Kraak | 21.8% | 22.0% | 19.5% | 13.6% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Lahr | 27.1% | 21.9% | 17.1% | 13.4% | 10.2% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Cornell | 6.3% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ian Marshall | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 13.2% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 14.5% | 14.8% | 9.5% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Sasha Wilson | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 6.9% | 12.4% | 27.1% | 35.1% | 0.0% |
| Grant Gravallese | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 21.4% | 18.1% | 16.4% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 5.3% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 15.1% | 11.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Sasha Wilson | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 6.9% | 12.4% | 27.1% | 35.1% | 0.0% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 7.0% | 12.9% | 24.9% | 39.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.