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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.82+2.30vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+4.45vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles0.09+4.37vs Predicted
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4University of California at Davis-0.43+4.59vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.66+0.76vs Predicted
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6California State University Monterey Bay-1.70+5.09vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.42-2.92vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego0.50-1.87vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.73+0.29vs Predicted
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10University of Washington-0.00-2.50vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California-0.10-3.42vs Predicted
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12University of Hawaii2.35-9.53vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay-1.70-1.91vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-1.80-2.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.3University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.2%1st Place
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6.45Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.1%1st Place
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7.37University of California at Los Angeles0.090.0%1st Place
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8.59University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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5.76University of California at Berkeley0.660.1%1st Place
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11.09California State University Monterey Bay-1.700.0%1st Place
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4.08University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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6.13University of California at San Diego0.500.1%1st Place
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9.29University of California at Santa Cruz-0.730.0%1st Place
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7.5University of Washington-0.000.0%1st Place
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7.58University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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2.47University of Hawaii2.350.3%1st Place
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11.09California State University Monterey Bay-1.700.0%1st Place
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11.41San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kraak | 21.2% | 19.8% | 19.6% | 13.9% | 11.3% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Ian Marshall | 2.2% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 14.3% | 15.5% | 11.5% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| Will Cornell | 6.9% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Max Graves | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 13.0% | 26.1% | 35.4% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 15.0% | 14.8% | 16.5% | 14.2% | 13.0% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Burleigh Charlton | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 15.6% | 19.1% | 16.3% | 8.9% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 13.5% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 6.2% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Patton | 33.7% | 28.7% | 16.2% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Graves | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 13.0% | 26.1% | 35.4% | 0.0% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 23.8% | 44.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.