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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.82+2.36vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+2.09vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.35-0.54vs Predicted
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4University of Washington-0.00+3.55vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.66+0.78vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+0.41vs Predicted
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7University of California at Davis-0.43+1.42vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego0.50-1.88vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California-0.10-1.21vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles0.09-2.76vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.73-1.86vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay-1.70-0.78vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-1.80-1.57vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay-1.70-2.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.36University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.2%1st Place
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4.09University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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2.46University of Hawaii2.350.4%1st Place
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7.55University of Washington-0.000.0%1st Place
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5.78University of California at Berkeley0.660.1%1st Place
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6.41Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.1%1st Place
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8.42University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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6.12University of California at San Diego0.500.1%1st Place
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7.79University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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7.24University of California at Los Angeles0.090.0%1st Place
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9.14University of California at Santa Cruz-0.730.0%1st Place
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11.22California State University Monterey Bay-1.700.0%1st Place
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11.43San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
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11.22California State University Monterey Bay-1.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kraak | 19.9% | 20.5% | 18.6% | 14.7% | 11.1% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 12.9% | 16.6% | 16.4% | 14.5% | 13.6% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Patton | 36.0% | 24.7% | 16.4% | 11.2% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 2.7% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Will Cornell | 6.2% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 11.6% | 14.4% | 17.2% | 10.7% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 13.1% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 7.6% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Ian Marshall | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Burleigh Charlton | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 18.6% | 15.8% | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| Max Graves | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 10.7% | 25.3% | 39.7% | 0.0% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 11.8% | 24.7% | 42.9% | 0.0% |
| Max Graves | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 10.7% | 25.3% | 39.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.