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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+3.14vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.35+0.45vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+3.50vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.82-0.66vs Predicted
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5California State University Monterey Bay-1.72+6.08vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.66-0.25vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.50-0.84vs Predicted
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8University of Washington-0.00-0.58vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.09-1.67vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California-0.10-2.30vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.43-2.62vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.73-2.65vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay-1.72-1.92vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-1.80-2.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.14University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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2.45University of Hawaii2.350.4%1st Place
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6.5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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3.34University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.2%1st Place
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11.08California State University Monterey Bay-1.720.0%1st Place
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5.75University of California at Berkeley0.660.1%1st Place
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6.16University of California at San Diego0.500.1%1st Place
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7.42University of Washington-0.000.0%1st Place
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7.33University of California at Los Angeles0.090.0%1st Place
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7.7University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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8.38University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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9.35University of California at Santa Cruz-0.730.0%1st Place
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11.08California State University Monterey Bay-1.720.0%1st Place
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11.4San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 12.6% | 15.6% | 17.3% | 14.2% | 13.8% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Patton | 35.9% | 26.4% | 15.7% | 10.4% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 3.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Kraak | 18.6% | 21.8% | 18.7% | 16.0% | 10.7% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sasha Wilson | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 11.2% | 25.2% | 37.7% | 0.0% |
| Will Cornell | 7.5% | 5.9% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Ian Marshall | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 9.1% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 12.9% | 12.5% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 14.0% | 12.9% | 15.5% | 9.2% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| Burleigh Charlton | 1.0% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 12.9% | 18.9% | 18.6% | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| Sasha Wilson | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 11.2% | 25.2% | 37.7% | 0.0% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 6.6% | 12.2% | 24.0% | 43.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.