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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy2.05+2.40vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+2.53vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.82+0.84vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii2.35-1.11vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.66+1.80vs Predicted
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6California State University Monterey Bay-1.72+6.28vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-0.73+3.02vs Predicted
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8University of Washington-0.00+0.33vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.50-1.91vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-2.63vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.43-1.44vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-1.80+0.35vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay-1.72-0.72vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California-0.10-5.44vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles0.09-7.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.4California Poly Maritime Academy2.050.2%1st Place
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4.53University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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3.84University of California at Santa Barbara1.820.2%1st Place
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2.89University of Hawaii2.350.3%1st Place
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6.8University of California at Berkeley0.660.0%1st Place
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12.28California State University Monterey Bay-1.720.0%1st Place
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10.02University of California at Santa Cruz-0.730.0%1st Place
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8.33University of Washington-0.000.0%1st Place
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7.09University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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7.37Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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9.56University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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12.35San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
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12.28California State University Monterey Bay-1.720.0%1st Place
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8.56University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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8.0University of California at Los Angeles0.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Collins | 19.9% | 22.1% | 17.7% | 13.9% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 11.3% | 13.0% | 14.9% | 13.3% | 13.7% | 12.0% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lukas Kraak | 17.5% | 14.5% | 17.7% | 14.2% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Patton | 27.3% | 23.8% | 16.5% | 14.0% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Cornell | 3.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 14.3% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Sasha Wilson | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 13.4% | 26.2% | 39.1% | 0.0% |
| Burleigh Charlton | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 18.2% | 15.1% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 13.4% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 12.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Braedon Hansen | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 16.9% | 16.4% | 10.8% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 10.7% | 26.2% | 41.7% | 0.0% |
| Sasha Wilson | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 13.4% | 26.2% | 39.1% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 6.1% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Ian Marshall | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 14.2% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.