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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Washington0.25+3.95vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.19+0.90vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.25+1.85vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles0.77-0.32vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.30+3.71vs Predicted
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6University of California at Davis-0.72+1.34vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.07+1.00vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz-0.91-0.28vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-0.61-2.05vs Predicted
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10University of Washington-0.60-3.05vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00-5.39vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.25-7.15vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.09-2.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.95University of Washington0.250.1%1st Place
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2.9University of California at Santa Barbara1.190.3%1st Place
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4.85University of California at Berkeley0.250.1%1st Place
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3.68University of California at Los Angeles0.770.2%1st Place
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8.71Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.300.0%1st Place
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7.34University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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8.0Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.070.0%1st Place
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7.72University of California at Santa Cruz-0.910.0%1st Place
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6.95University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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6.95University of Washington-0.600.0%1st Place
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5.61Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.1%1st Place
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4.85University of California at Berkeley0.250.1%1st Place
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10.36Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zackery Martin | 11.4% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Reid | 27.6% | 24.5% | 16.3% | 12.2% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael McCulloch | 12.5% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Drew Wolf | 18.0% | 19.5% | 16.9% | 13.8% | 10.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kelly | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 14.6% | 19.5% | 17.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 13.3% | 10.3% | 5.4% | 0.0% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 17.2% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| Marcus Leitner | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 14.4% | 13.1% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 4.0% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Henry Stier | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 12.6% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 7.7% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael McCulloch | 12.5% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Adriana Yarkin | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 18.0% | 50.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.