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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Washington0.25+3.95vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.19+0.93vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.25+1.83vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles-0.61+3.03vs Predicted
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5University of Washington-0.60+1.99vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-0.91+1.81vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00-1.67vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.25-3.17vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.07-0.96vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.09+0.25vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles0.77-7.34vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-0.72-4.57vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.30-4.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.95University of Washington0.250.1%1st Place
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2.93University of California at Santa Barbara1.190.3%1st Place
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4.83University of California at Berkeley0.250.1%1st Place
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7.03University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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6.99University of Washington-0.600.0%1st Place
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7.81University of California at Santa Cruz-0.910.0%1st Place
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5.33Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.1%1st Place
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4.83University of California at Berkeley0.250.1%1st Place
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8.04Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.070.0%1st Place
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10.25Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.090.0%1st Place
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3.66University of California at Los Angeles0.770.2%1st Place
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7.43University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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8.76Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zackery Martin | 11.3% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 14.0% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Reid | 26.8% | 24.1% | 18.3% | 11.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael McCulloch | 11.3% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 14.0% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| Henry Stier | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| Marcus Leitner | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 14.0% | 14.1% | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 9.8% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael McCulloch | 11.3% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 15.6% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| Adriana Yarkin | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 16.6% | 46.6% | 0.0% |
| Drew Wolf | 18.2% | 19.7% | 16.0% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 4.7% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 14.5% | 10.6% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kelly | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 14.2% | 20.8% | 16.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.