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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.19+1.94vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles0.77+1.72vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles-0.61+4.05vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.07+4.20vs Predicted
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5University of Washington0.25-0.07vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.25-1.12vs Predicted
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7University of California at Davis-0.72+0.21vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.25-3.12vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00-3.65vs Predicted
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10University of Washington-0.60-3.17vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.91-3.25vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.09-1.62vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.30-4.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.94University of California at Santa Barbara1.190.3%1st Place
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3.72University of California at Los Angeles0.770.2%1st Place
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7.05University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.1%1st Place
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8.2Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.070.0%1st Place
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4.93University of Washington0.250.1%1st Place
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4.88University of California at Berkeley0.250.1%1st Place
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7.21University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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4.88University of California at Berkeley0.250.1%1st Place
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5.35Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.1%1st Place
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6.83University of Washington-0.600.0%1st Place
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7.75University of California at Santa Cruz-0.910.0%1st Place
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10.38Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.090.0%1st Place
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8.76Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasper Reid | 27.2% | 21.3% | 19.6% | 12.7% | 9.1% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Wolf | 17.8% | 18.3% | 16.9% | 15.2% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 5.8% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 1.8% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 15.9% | 12.1% | 0.0% |
| Zackery Martin | 10.9% | 10.4% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 13.8% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Michael McCulloch | 10.5% | 13.0% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| Michael McCulloch | 10.5% | 13.0% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 12.9% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 10.1% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Henry Stier | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 7.5% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Marcus Leitner | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 15.4% | 12.7% | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| Adriana Yarkin | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 16.1% | 51.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kelly | 2.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 14.1% | 22.6% | 15.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.