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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.19+1.91vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.25+2.90vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles0.77+0.71vs Predicted
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4University of Washington0.25+0.94vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles-0.61+2.02vs Predicted
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6University of California at Davis-0.72+1.33vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-0.91+0.71vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.25-3.10vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.07-0.90vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00-4.65vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.30-2.36vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.09-1.64vs Predicted
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13University of Washington-0.60-5.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.91University of California at Santa Barbara1.190.3%1st Place
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4.9University of California at Berkeley0.250.1%1st Place
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3.71University of California at Los Angeles0.770.2%1st Place
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4.94University of Washington0.250.1%1st Place
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7.02University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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7.33University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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7.71University of California at Santa Cruz-0.910.0%1st Place
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4.9University of California at Berkeley0.250.1%1st Place
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8.1Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.070.0%1st Place
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5.35Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.1%1st Place
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8.64Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.300.0%1st Place
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10.36Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.090.0%1st Place
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7.03University of Washington-0.600.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasper Reid | 28.4% | 22.3% | 17.5% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael McCulloch | 10.1% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Wolf | 20.4% | 16.2% | 15.4% | 13.3% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zackery Martin | 9.0% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 3.9% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 13.9% | 11.3% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| Marcus Leitner | 4.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 14.4% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael McCulloch | 10.1% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 14.5% | 17.3% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 8.0% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kelly | 2.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 14.9% | 18.7% | 16.5% | 0.0% |
| Adriana Yarkin | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 10.5% | 15.5% | 50.7% | 0.0% |
| Henry Stier | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 14.4% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.