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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Washington0.25+3.95vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.19+0.92vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles-0.61+4.03vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.25+0.87vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.07+3.18vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.77-2.30vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.30+1.55vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00-2.64vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.91-1.32vs Predicted
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10University of Washington-0.60-3.05vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley0.25-6.13vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-0.72-4.53vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.09-2.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.95University of Washington0.250.1%1st Place
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2.92University of California at Santa Barbara1.190.3%1st Place
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7.03University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.1%1st Place
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4.87University of California at Berkeley0.250.1%1st Place
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8.18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.070.0%1st Place
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3.7University of California at Los Angeles0.770.2%1st Place
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8.55Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.300.0%1st Place
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5.36Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.1%1st Place
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7.68University of California at Santa Cruz-0.910.0%1st Place
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6.95University of Washington-0.600.1%1st Place
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4.87University of California at Berkeley0.250.1%1st Place
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7.47University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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10.34Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zackery Martin | 10.4% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Reid | 27.4% | 24.6% | 15.5% | 13.4% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 13.4% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Michael McCulloch | 9.5% | 12.3% | 14.9% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 11.9% | 14.2% | 16.0% | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Wolf | 19.2% | 17.5% | 16.4% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kelly | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 15.0% | 18.5% | 16.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 9.6% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Marcus Leitner | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| Henry Stier | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| Michael McCulloch | 9.5% | 12.3% | 14.9% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 4.1% | 2.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 9.9% | 13.4% | 11.2% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| Adriana Yarkin | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 9.7% | 17.9% | 49.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.