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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.19+1.94vs Predicted
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2University of Washington0.25+2.91vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.25+1.84vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles0.77-0.29vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.91+2.82vs Predicted
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6University of California at Davis-0.72+1.34vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00-1.62vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.30+0.63vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.25-4.16vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-0.61-3.06vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.07-2.94vs Predicted
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12University of Washington-0.60-4.89vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.09-2.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.94University of California at Santa Barbara1.190.3%1st Place
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4.91University of Washington0.250.1%1st Place
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4.84University of California at Berkeley0.250.1%1st Place
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3.71University of California at Los Angeles0.770.2%1st Place
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7.82University of California at Santa Cruz-0.910.0%1st Place
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7.34University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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5.38Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.1%1st Place
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8.63Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.300.0%1st Place
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4.84University of California at Berkeley0.250.1%1st Place
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6.94University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.0%1st Place
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8.06Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.070.0%1st Place
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7.11University of Washington-0.600.0%1st Place
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10.31Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasper Reid | 28.3% | 22.1% | 16.8% | 13.0% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zackery Martin | 9.3% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael McCulloch | 12.6% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Drew Wolf | 18.1% | 19.4% | 16.4% | 13.5% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marcus Leitner | 2.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 14.3% | 13.3% | 9.3% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 9.7% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kelly | 1.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 20.1% | 16.6% | 0.0% |
| Michael McCulloch | 12.6% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 15.0% | 14.6% | 10.8% | 0.0% |
| Henry Stier | 4.7% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 9.1% | 4.1% | 0.0% |
| Adriana Yarkin | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 17.4% | 49.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.