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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.19+2.05vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles0.77+1.86vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles-0.61+4.09vs Predicted
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4University of Washington0.25+1.01vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.71-1.03vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.07+2.26vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.71-3.03vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.00-2.49vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-0.72-1.69vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.30-1.30vs Predicted
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11University of Washington-0.60-4.03vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.91-4.05vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.09-2.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.05University of California at Santa Barbara1.190.3%1st Place
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3.86University of California at Los Angeles0.770.2%1st Place
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7.09University of California at Los Angeles-0.610.1%1st Place
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5.01University of Washington0.250.1%1st Place
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3.97University of California at Berkeley0.710.2%1st Place
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8.26Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.070.0%1st Place
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3.97University of California at Berkeley0.710.2%1st Place
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5.51Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.000.1%1st Place
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7.31University of California at Davis-0.720.0%1st Place
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8.7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.300.0%1st Place
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6.97University of Washington-0.600.1%1st Place
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7.95University of California at Santa Cruz-0.910.0%1st Place
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10.32Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.090.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasper Reid | 25.2% | 22.3% | 18.6% | 12.7% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Wolf | 15.9% | 17.1% | 16.6% | 14.8% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Zackery Martin | 8.9% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 17.2% | 16.0% | 14.7% | 14.2% | 13.3% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 15.4% | 17.7% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 17.2% | 16.0% | 14.7% | 14.2% | 13.3% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 10.1% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kelly | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 16.6% | 17.7% | 14.4% | 0.0% |
| Henry Stier | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 13.9% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| Marcus Leitner | 3.5% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 14.3% | 14.0% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| Adriana Yarkin | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 17.9% | 49.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.