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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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11.43+1.48vs Predicted
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2University of Washington0.38+2.39vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99+4.78vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles-1.95+5.97vs Predicted
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5University of Washington0.62-1.22vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles-0.25-0.24vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara-0.36-0.94vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley-1.23+0.25vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.02-3.62vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-0.58-3.34vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-1.23-2.75vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.26-3.73vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.56-1.84vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-2.48-2.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.481.430.4%1st Place
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4.39University of Washington0.380.1%1st Place
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7.78University of California at Santa Cruz-0.990.0%1st Place
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9.97University of California at Los Angeles-1.950.0%1st Place
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3.78University of Washington0.620.2%1st Place
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5.76University of California at Los Angeles-0.250.1%1st Place
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6.06University of California at Santa Barbara-0.360.1%1st Place
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8.25University of California at Berkeley-1.230.0%1st Place
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5.38Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.020.1%1st Place
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6.66University of California at San Diego-0.580.1%1st Place
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8.25University of California at Berkeley-1.230.0%1st Place
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8.27Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.260.0%1st Place
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11.16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.560.0%1st Place
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11.05University of California at Davis-2.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Ross | 35.6% | 25.9% | 15.7% | 10.5% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 11.5% | 13.5% | 16.7% | 15.7% | 12.3% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Martin | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 14.2% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 5.8% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Deven Douglas | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 19.5% | 20.2% | 15.6% | 0.0% |
| Erin Pamplin | 15.7% | 19.9% | 15.0% | 14.9% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Linnea Jackson | 6.9% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Juliet St. Germain | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 12.9% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Max Lawall | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 15.4% | 14.1% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Florence Duff | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tobie Bloom | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Max Lawall | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 15.4% | 14.1% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Macy Rowe | 1.8% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 13.2% | 13.6% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Schackel | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 23.0% | 39.9% | 0.0% |
| Shanay Patel | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 5.7% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 24.5% | 34.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.