Race 11A

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Carmen Cowles 15.6% 12.8% 14.9% 12.0% 9.5% 9.6% 7.9% 6.2% 3.9% 4.2% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4%
Brooke Shachoy 8.5% 9.4% 8.6% 9.3% 8.6% 9.7% 8.9% 9.5% 8.5% 7.2% 5.7% 4.1% 2.0%
Alexandra Talbot 3.4% 3.1% 3.2% 4.2% 4.8% 5.6% 7.0% 7.5% 8.6% 9.5% 12.5% 14.6% 16.0%
Dana Haig 14.4% 12.1% 13.3% 11.4% 10.7% 8.1% 8.7% 6.8% 6.2% 3.8% 2.8% 1.3% 0.4%
Emily Bornarth 11.3% 13.1% 11.7% 9.1% 10.3% 9.3% 8.8% 7.9% 6.6% 5.2% 3.8% 2.2% 0.7%
Emma Shakespeare 4.0% 3.4% 4.0% 4.5% 4.7% 5.0% 6.3% 5.9% 9.4% 9.1% 12.7% 12.0% 19.0%
Allison Marozza 4.4% 4.9% 4.5% 4.3% 4.7% 5.3% 7.0% 7.0% 7.1% 10.1% 11.4% 15.3% 14.0%
Katherine Bennett 6.1% 6.0% 5.6% 6.8% 8.0% 7.9% 8.2% 9.2% 10.6% 9.6% 8.7% 7.6% 5.7%
Lucia Loosbrock 4.2% 5.2% 4.1% 6.0% 5.4% 7.1% 6.4% 8.4% 8.1% 10.3% 10.9% 11.0% 12.9%
Claire Siegel-Wilson 5.9% 4.5% 5.3% 6.6% 7.6% 5.9% 9.6% 7.2% 9.1% 8.8% 9.5% 10.4% 9.6%
Caroline Bayless 11.0% 11.4% 12.3% 10.8% 10.4% 10.2% 7.9% 7.4% 6.7% 5.5% 3.2% 2.5% 0.7%
AnaLucia Clarkson 3.1% 4.4% 3.1% 4.9% 4.8% 7.0% 5.3% 6.9% 7.0% 10.4% 10.8% 15.3% 17.0%
Marbella Marlo 8.1% 9.7% 9.4% 10.1% 10.5% 9.3% 8.0% 10.1% 8.2% 6.3% 5.9% 2.8% 1.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.