Race 1B

stu-nelson

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Blaire McCarthy 10.0% 8.7% 10.8% 10.5% 9.5% 9.8% 9.8% 8.9% 8.4% 6.3% 4.5% 2.3% 0.5%
Brooke Schmelz 7.2% 9.3% 9.2% 9.0% 9.3% 9.7% 10.1% 7.7% 9.6% 8.8% 6.3% 2.4% 1.4%
Cordelia Burn 11.7% 12.0% 11.9% 9.3% 11.9% 9.3% 10.0% 8.0% 6.5% 4.3% 3.6% 1.3% 0.2%
Emma Cowles 18.0% 18.7% 13.4% 13.1% 9.8% 8.5% 6.2% 5.4% 3.7% 2.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
Chloe Holder 8.4% 6.5% 9.1% 8.5% 7.5% 8.1% 10.4% 8.9% 10.4% 9.1% 7.5% 4.0% 1.6%
Emma Snead 8.4% 8.8% 9.6% 9.5% 9.4% 9.7% 9.4% 10.0% 7.2% 7.7% 6.6% 3.0% 0.7%
Madison Bashaw 10.2% 9.3% 8.9% 7.7% 9.7% 10.0% 8.2% 10.5% 7.4% 8.2% 5.6% 3.5% 0.8%
Hailey Pemberton 2.0% 2.5% 3.2% 2.9% 2.9% 3.6% 3.9% 6.3% 8.3% 10.1% 13.2% 18.8% 22.3%
Meredith Moran 11.1% 11.4% 10.2% 10.3% 11.6% 10.0% 9.0% 7.6% 7.3% 5.9% 3.5% 1.8% 0.3%
Sydney Monahan 7.7% 6.6% 6.7% 9.0% 8.9% 9.2% 8.4% 9.7% 8.4% 9.0% 8.5% 4.8% 3.1%
Ashley Arruda 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 3.4% 2.8% 3.8% 4.7% 5.0% 7.9% 10.4% 14.3% 20.6% 21.3%
Christiana Scheibner 1.0% 1.7% 1.7% 2.4% 2.5% 2.2% 3.9% 5.3% 5.5% 6.8% 11.8% 20.0% 35.2%
Grace Woodcock 2.5% 2.6% 3.2% 4.4% 4.2% 6.1% 6.0% 6.7% 9.4% 11.2% 14.0% 17.2% 12.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.