Race 3B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Hailey Pemberton 2.2% 2.2% 2.5% 2.1% 1.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.9% 8.1% 8.5% 14.2% 21.7% 20.8%
Cordelia Burn 11.7% 11.2% 11.1% 13.1% 11.0% 9.2% 8.2% 7.8% 6.9% 4.2% 3.3% 1.7% 0.6%
Meredith Moran 10.6% 12.2% 11.4% 9.6% 9.6% 10.8% 9.6% 8.8% 7.2% 5.6% 3.2% 1.1% 0.3%
Blaire McCarthy 8.3% 10.8% 11.7% 9.9% 8.9% 10.5% 9.3% 7.9% 8.4% 7.0% 5.2% 1.6% 0.5%
Madison Bashaw 10.1% 9.5% 9.5% 8.3% 8.8% 9.1% 9.9% 10.5% 8.9% 6.6% 5.8% 2.6% 0.4%
Brooke Schmelz 9.0% 8.7% 7.7% 9.9% 11.2% 8.4% 10.5% 7.9% 8.7% 6.4% 7.2% 3.5% 0.9%
Emma Snead 9.9% 8.6% 8.5% 9.4% 8.4% 8.6% 9.5% 9.2% 9.3% 8.7% 5.8% 3.0% 1.1%
Emma Cowles 18.7% 18.4% 10.9% 14.5% 11.2% 10.4% 5.4% 3.9% 3.4% 1.9% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Sydney Monahan 6.9% 6.3% 7.2% 7.3% 9.0% 8.4% 10.3% 9.7% 8.9% 10.0% 8.0% 5.9% 2.1%
Ashley Arruda 1.7% 2.4% 3.2% 2.5% 2.8% 2.9% 4.0% 4.7% 5.7% 10.2% 14.2% 19.5% 26.2%
Grace Woodcock 3.0% 2.3% 4.4% 5.2% 6.2% 4.2% 6.5% 8.0% 9.7% 11.9% 14.2% 14.8% 9.6%
Christiana Scheibner 1.2% 1.2% 2.7% 1.2% 2.3% 3.8% 3.5% 4.7% 4.8% 8.8% 11.3% 18.8% 35.7%
Chloe Holder 6.7% 6.2% 9.2% 7.0% 8.8% 8.7% 8.3% 11.0% 10.0% 10.2% 6.4% 5.7% 1.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.