Race 4B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Emma Cowles 19.2% 15.5% 14.5% 12.9% 11.7% 8.0% 6.7% 4.2% 4.0% 2.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Brooke Schmelz 7.8% 9.5% 8.1% 7.2% 11.5% 10.6% 9.7% 9.0% 6.6% 10.1% 5.3% 3.3% 1.3%
Blaire McCarthy 8.3% 10.4% 11.3% 10.4% 8.4% 10.8% 9.6% 9.6% 8.0% 6.0% 4.5% 2.0% 0.7%
Chloe Holder 7.2% 7.7% 7.4% 9.4% 8.5% 8.5% 9.4% 10.2% 8.5% 8.2% 8.6% 4.6% 1.8%
Sydney Monahan 7.3% 8.0% 7.7% 7.2% 7.8% 10.3% 8.0% 9.7% 10.7% 8.9% 7.1% 5.2% 2.1%
Christiana Scheibner 1.1% 1.6% 2.4% 3.1% 2.7% 2.8% 3.0% 4.2% 6.1% 8.5% 11.8% 21.1% 31.6%
Cordelia Burn 12.5% 12.4% 12.1% 10.1% 10.2% 10.4% 9.3% 7.7% 7.1% 3.8% 3.0% 0.8% 0.6%
Emma Snead 8.1% 9.5% 8.8% 8.4% 9.4% 8.4% 10.2% 10.0% 9.6% 8.3% 5.4% 2.6% 1.3%
Grace Woodcock 3.2% 3.9% 3.4% 3.4% 4.6% 5.8% 4.7% 7.5% 8.2% 12.5% 14.1% 15.6% 13.1%
Meredith Moran 13.3% 10.0% 10.5% 12.9% 10.7% 7.8% 8.1% 8.6% 7.3% 4.7% 3.6% 2.2% 0.3%
Ashley Arruda 1.9% 1.5% 2.1% 2.9% 4.4% 3.8% 4.9% 4.9% 8.1% 9.2% 15.4% 19.3% 21.6%
Madison Bashaw 8.2% 7.8% 9.7% 9.7% 7.8% 8.8% 11.1% 9.0% 8.8% 8.6% 5.5% 3.4% 1.6%
Hailey Pemberton 1.9% 2.2% 2.0% 2.4% 2.3% 4.0% 5.3% 5.4% 7.0% 9.0% 14.7% 19.8% 24.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.