Race 5B

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Emma Cowles 19.0% 15.5% 15.9% 11.5% 10.9% 8.4% 7.6% 5.0% 2.6% 2.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Emma Snead 8.5% 7.7% 8.7% 8.4% 11.2% 10.9% 7.8% 9.9% 8.4% 8.0% 6.6% 2.7% 1.2%
Chloe Holder 6.1% 7.8% 8.0% 9.2% 8.6% 7.6% 10.5% 9.7% 10.6% 9.0% 7.8% 3.7% 1.4%
Grace Woodcock 2.4% 3.1% 3.6% 4.6% 4.6% 5.2% 6.5% 7.6% 8.7% 10.3% 14.6% 17.1% 11.7%
Sydney Monahan 7.8% 6.8% 6.9% 7.9% 9.2% 7.5% 10.2% 7.6% 12.3% 10.2% 6.8% 5.2% 1.6%
Madison Bashaw 9.8% 8.4% 9.3% 9.4% 8.3% 12.0% 8.0% 9.9% 8.1% 7.0% 6.2% 2.9% 0.7%
Meredith Moran 12.0% 11.8% 10.9% 11.2% 11.0% 8.8% 9.9% 6.6% 6.5% 6.2% 3.4% 1.4% 0.3%
Hailey Pemberton 2.1% 2.5% 2.8% 2.9% 3.6% 2.5% 4.5% 5.7% 7.5% 11.0% 15.0% 19.5% 20.4%
Brooke Schmelz 8.5% 8.6% 7.9% 9.4% 8.8% 9.5% 10.0% 9.9% 8.8% 7.6% 5.9% 3.9% 1.2%
Christiana Scheibner 1.2% 2.4% 1.9% 2.8% 2.9% 2.1% 2.7% 4.7% 7.1% 9.4% 11.0% 18.9% 32.9%
Cordelia Burn 11.7% 14.0% 12.0% 10.8% 9.4% 11.3% 8.7% 8.5% 5.3% 3.5% 2.6% 1.7% 0.5%
Blaire McCarthy 9.4% 9.4% 10.1% 9.8% 9.1% 11.0% 9.1% 10.4% 7.5% 6.2% 5.0% 2.5% 0.5%
Ashley Arruda 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 2.4% 3.2% 4.5% 4.5% 6.6% 9.4% 14.1% 20.1% 27.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.