Race 3C

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Brielle Willoughby 15.6% 15.8% 14.6% 13.5% 10.9% 9.9% 8.3% 4.5% 3.4% 1.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Mia Nicolosi 32.1% 23.2% 16.6% 11.3% 7.5% 4.8% 1.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Julia Wyatt 6.1% 8.0% 10.6% 9.5% 9.9% 10.7% 9.9% 9.4% 9.3% 6.3% 6.1% 3.2% 1.0%
Aili Moffet 3.2% 4.5% 4.6% 7.2% 6.5% 8.2% 8.5% 8.6% 9.3% 10.9% 12.6% 10.6% 5.3%
Annie Buelt 10.4% 10.8% 11.7% 11.1% 9.9% 10.0% 10.6% 8.9% 6.0% 4.5% 4.2% 1.5% 0.4%
Lily Flack 3.8% 3.1% 5.1% 5.5% 5.5% 6.6% 7.2% 8.2% 9.7% 12.0% 11.9% 11.8% 9.6%
Luciana Solorzano 1.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 3.6% 3.4% 2.5% 6.4% 5.9% 6.9% 9.8% 16.7% 36.1%
Annika Fedde 8.8% 8.0% 7.6% 10.1% 11.3% 8.8% 11.6% 10.9% 7.1% 6.9% 3.7% 4.1% 1.1%
Lucija Ruzevic 4.8% 5.0% 6.3% 6.8% 7.4% 8.6% 8.5% 8.9% 10.2% 10.4% 8.6% 7.6% 6.9%
Mary McLauchlin 3.5% 4.5% 3.9% 3.7% 6.3% 5.9% 7.1% 8.2% 9.9% 11.2% 11.7% 13.0% 11.1%
Caylin Schnoor 2.8% 3.7% 4.7% 7.0% 6.3% 6.2% 8.3% 9.5% 11.4% 11.2% 11.5% 10.0% 7.4%
Lauren Krim 1.7% 2.9% 3.1% 3.8% 4.6% 5.4% 5.3% 6.0% 7.8% 9.9% 12.6% 17.5% 19.4%
Sophia Montgomery 5.6% 8.1% 8.8% 8.2% 10.3% 11.5% 10.4% 9.1% 9.5% 7.5% 5.7% 3.6% 1.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.