Race 4C

stu-nelson

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Mia Nicolosi 32.2% 19.7% 17.7% 12.6% 7.6% 5.1% 2.5% 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brielle Willoughby 15.3% 16.5% 14.7% 14.2% 10.8% 8.8% 7.2% 5.6% 3.0% 2.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.1%
Annie Buelt 7.9% 10.5% 12.0% 11.6% 9.3% 10.7% 10.5% 9.4% 6.6% 5.5% 3.6% 1.8% 0.6%
Annika Fedde 6.9% 9.1% 7.7% 11.4% 11.2% 8.6% 9.8% 8.3% 9.9% 6.7% 6.0% 3.4% 1.0%
Julia Wyatt 8.7% 7.9% 9.3% 9.9% 11.0% 8.5% 9.5% 10.8% 7.9% 7.1% 5.3% 3.4% 0.7%
Lily Flack 3.5% 3.8% 4.4% 5.2% 5.2% 7.5% 6.9% 7.3% 11.8% 11.7% 10.8% 12.3% 9.6%
Aili Moffet 5.6% 4.0% 5.5% 5.2% 7.8% 8.1% 8.2% 8.5% 9.4% 11.7% 10.7% 9.4% 5.9%
Mary McLauchlin 3.0% 4.3% 3.5% 3.7% 6.4% 6.1% 7.6% 9.8% 9.4% 9.9% 14.8% 11.4% 10.1%
Luciana Solorzano 1.6% 1.4% 2.6% 2.2% 3.3% 3.6% 3.5% 3.9% 5.2% 7.0% 10.8% 17.4% 37.5%
Caylin Schnoor 3.8% 4.4% 4.1% 4.3% 6.1% 7.5% 7.1% 10.0% 8.9% 9.8% 12.4% 12.1% 9.5%
Lucija Ruzevic 4.2% 6.0% 6.6% 8.3% 7.3% 9.6% 10.3% 9.4% 9.8% 9.9% 7.7% 7.5% 3.4%
Lauren Krim 1.5% 2.9% 3.4% 3.6% 4.4% 4.7% 7.2% 5.9% 6.9% 11.3% 10.8% 16.8% 20.6%
Sophia Montgomery 5.8% 9.5% 8.5% 7.8% 9.6% 11.2% 9.7% 10.0% 10.2% 6.9% 6.2% 3.6% 1.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.