← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Bates College-0.59+2.14vs Predicted
-
2Bowdoin College-0.43+0.92vs Predicted
-
3University of New Hampshire-1.36+1.50vs Predicted
-
4Bates College-1.38+0.54vs Predicted
-
5Middlebury College-1.71+0.09vs Predicted
-
6Bates College-1.27-1.65vs Predicted
-
7Bates College-0.85-3.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.14Bates College-0.590.2%1st Place
-
2.92Bowdoin College-0.430.2%1st Place
-
4.5University of New Hampshire-1.360.1%1st Place
-
4.54Bates College-1.380.1%1st Place
-
5.09Middlebury College-1.710.1%1st Place
-
4.35Bates College-1.270.1%1st Place
-
3.46Bates College-0.850.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Green | 23.4% | 20.5% | 16.0% | 16.3% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 4.0% |
| Esteban Tarazona | 24.2% | 23.0% | 19.7% | 14.4% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 2.7% |
| Robert Caldwell | 8.8% | 9.8% | 13.6% | 14.5% | 15.6% | 19.4% | 18.3% |
| Gray Dinsel | 9.4% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 18.1% | 19.7% | 19.2% |
| Teo Flesher | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 19.1% | 32.9% |
| Lila Schaefer | 10.4% | 10.9% | 14.1% | 13.8% | 17.0% | 16.5% | 17.3% |
| Kieran Small | 17.8% | 17.3% | 16.9% | 17.8% | 15.3% | 9.3% | 5.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.