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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+4.69vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.18+2.50vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University1.97+6.63vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.38+4.36vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.68+1.69vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.22+1.36vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.02+1.32vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-0.16vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.07+3.38vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont1.05+2.87vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09+1.67vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.38-4.59vs Predicted
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13Brown University2.22-3.79vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island2.78-5.69vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77-5.78vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.14-4.77vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College1.20-5.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.69Yale University2.8510.8%1st Place
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4.5Harvard University3.1817.4%1st Place
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9.63Roger Williams University1.973.5%1st Place
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8.36Bowdoin College2.385.9%1st Place
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6.69Roger Williams University2.688.5%1st Place
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7.36Tufts University2.228.0%1st Place
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8.32Boston College2.025.5%1st Place
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7.84Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.2%1st Place
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12.38Northeastern University1.072.1%1st Place
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12.87University of Vermont1.051.8%1st Place
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12.67U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.091.8%1st Place
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7.41Dartmouth College2.387.0%1st Place
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9.21Brown University2.225.0%1st Place
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8.31University of Rhode Island2.786.2%1st Place
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9.22Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.774.2%1st Place
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11.23Boston University1.142.9%1st Place
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11.3Connecticut College1.202.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 10.8% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Justin Callahan | 17.4% | 15.2% | 13.2% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Lucy Meagher | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.3% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Carlos de Castro | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Ben Mueller | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Jack Redmond | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 18.6% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 16.4% | 23.2% |
| Jack Derry | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 16.7% | 19.8% |
| William Michels | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Mason Stang | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 3.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 1.3% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 3.4% |
| Tiare Sierra | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 10.2% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 10.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.