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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+4.79vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.68+4.65vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.78+5.39vs Predicted
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4Boston University1.14+7.19vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.38+3.40vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.18-1.46vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+0.62vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09+4.39vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.22-1.24vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77-0.63vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.02-2.63vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.07+0.28vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College1.20-1.67vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont1.05-1.19vs Predicted
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15Brown University2.22-5.93vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University1.97-6.44vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College2.38-9.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.79Yale University2.8512.2%1st Place
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6.65Roger Williams University2.6810.1%1st Place
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8.39University of Rhode Island2.785.3%1st Place
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11.19Boston University1.142.9%1st Place
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8.4Bowdoin College2.386.8%1st Place
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4.54Harvard University3.1816.5%1st Place
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7.62Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.316.8%1st Place
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12.39U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.092.4%1st Place
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7.76Tufts University2.225.5%1st Place
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9.37Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.774.4%1st Place
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8.37Boston College2.025.4%1st Place
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12.28Northeastern University1.072.1%1st Place
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11.33Connecticut College1.202.5%1st Place
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12.81University of Vermont1.051.5%1st Place
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9.07Brown University2.224.4%1st Place
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9.56Roger Williams University1.974.1%1st Place
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7.47Dartmouth College2.387.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 12.2% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| Tiare Sierra | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 9.8% |
| Thomas Hall | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| Justin Callahan | 16.5% | 16.4% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Jack Derry | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 12.8% | 21.2% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.0% |
| Jack Redmond | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 14.6% | 18.9% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 10.8% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 14.9% | 23.0% |
| Mason Stang | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
| Lucy Meagher | 4.1% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 3.8% |
| William Michels | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.