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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.68+5.59vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.85+3.80vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.22+4.64vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.02+4.24vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.38+3.69vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.18-1.44vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.22+2.22vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College1.20+3.33vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.14+2.13vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.78-1.76vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.38-3.52vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09+0.55vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.07-0.76vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-6.34vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77-5.55vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont1.05-3.48vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University1.97-7.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.59Roger Williams University2.687.8%1st Place
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5.8Yale University2.8512.0%1st Place
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7.64Tufts University2.226.5%1st Place
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8.24Boston College2.025.5%1st Place
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8.69Bowdoin College2.385.7%1st Place
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4.56Harvard University3.1817.9%1st Place
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9.22Brown University2.224.5%1st Place
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11.33Connecticut College1.202.9%1st Place
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11.13Boston University1.142.8%1st Place
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8.24University of Rhode Island2.785.3%1st Place
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7.48Dartmouth College2.387.4%1st Place
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12.55U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.091.6%1st Place
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12.24Northeastern University1.072.9%1st Place
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7.66Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.1%1st Place
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9.45Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.774.5%1st Place
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12.52University of Vermont1.051.7%1st Place
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9.65Roger Williams University1.974.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Stephan Baker | 12.0% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Jack Redmond | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Justin Callahan | 17.9% | 14.5% | 14.4% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mason Stang | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 2.7% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 10.4% |
| Tiare Sierra | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.9% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| William Michels | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Jack Derry | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 14.6% | 21.6% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 14.5% | 19.8% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.8% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 11.5% | 14.8% | 21.3% |
| Lucy Meagher | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 3.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.