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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.00+4.54vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.84+3.99vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.65+7.11vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.07+1.34vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.45+2.53vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.71+0.54vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.20+1.29vs Predicted
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8Yale University2.92-2.17vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont1.89+0.34vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University1.73+0.02vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College2.46-3.56vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.36-4.02vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University2.36-4.96vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University0.70-1.24vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.93-5.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.54Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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5.99Harvard University2.840.1%1st Place
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10.11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.650.0%1st Place
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5.34Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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7.53Dartmouth College2.450.1%1st Place
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6.54Tufts University2.710.1%1st Place
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8.29Bowdoin College2.200.1%1st Place
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5.83Yale University2.920.1%1st Place
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9.34University of Vermont1.890.0%1st Place
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10.02Salve Regina University1.730.0%1st Place
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7.44Connecticut College2.460.1%1st Place
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7.98University of Rhode Island2.360.1%1st Place
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8.04Northeastern University2.360.1%1st Place
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12.76Northwestern University0.700.0%1st Place
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9.26Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Hoogland | 11.0% | 14.0% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Henry Burnes | 9.6% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Alex Abate | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 16.0% | 11.2% |
| Wiley Rogers | 13.1% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 2.2% |
| Alex Fasolo | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Perham Black | 6.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 3.7% |
| Emma Cowles | 11.5% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Grace Gear | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 7.2% |
| Peter Cronin | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 13.1% | 11.0% |
| Walter Henry | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.4% |
| Parker Colantuono | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 2.2% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
| Marina Hutzler | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 13.4% | 48.9% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 6.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.