Race 3B

captain-hurst-bowl

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

13.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Perham Black 6.3% 5.6% 4.8% 6.5% 6.9% 6.1% 7.5% 7.5% 6.9% 5.8% 7.5% 9.9% 7.3% 6.7% 4.7%
Alex Fasolo 8.7% 9.4% 10.7% 8.3% 9.2% 7.4% 8.0% 7.8% 7.1% 6.7% 5.6% 4.9% 3.8% 1.8% 0.6%
Emma Cowles 10.8% 12.1% 8.5% 10.3% 10.4% 7.8% 8.7% 7.4% 6.8% 6.0% 4.3% 2.8% 2.3% 1.7% 0.1%
Henry Burnes 9.9% 10.1% 10.4% 9.2% 8.4% 8.7% 7.2% 7.1% 6.8% 7.7% 5.1% 4.6% 2.7% 1.7% 0.4%
Walter Henry 7.1% 7.1% 6.9% 5.9% 7.4% 7.4% 8.5% 4.5% 9.6% 8.3% 8.0% 5.9% 6.7% 4.3% 2.4%
Oliver Hurwitz 6.5% 6.4% 7.5% 6.2% 7.0% 7.0% 8.2% 8.8% 9.0% 7.7% 7.7% 5.1% 7.3% 4.4% 1.2%
Alex Abate 4.2% 2.8% 3.1% 3.5% 3.8% 3.9% 4.8% 5.0% 5.6% 7.9% 7.0% 9.8% 12.0% 15.5% 11.1%
Aidan Hoogland 12.0% 11.4% 10.9% 9.0% 7.6% 10.0% 8.2% 8.0% 7.8% 4.8% 4.5% 2.2% 1.7% 1.3% 0.6%
Wiley Rogers 12.4% 12.3% 11.1% 12.5% 8.4% 9.3% 7.7% 8.0% 5.4% 4.4% 4.0% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Parker Colantuono 5.6% 6.0% 6.0% 6.8% 6.0% 8.4% 8.0% 7.7% 6.8% 8.9% 7.5% 8.0% 6.7% 5.4% 2.2%
Peter Cronin 2.8% 3.0% 3.8% 5.3% 3.8% 4.1% 5.4% 6.0% 6.4% 6.4% 7.4% 8.8% 11.6% 13.5% 11.7%
Grace Gear 3.4% 2.5% 3.4% 4.5% 6.2% 5.2% 5.0% 5.6% 6.3% 8.1% 7.8% 10.7% 10.4% 13.8% 7.1%
Parker Purrington 3.3% 5.0% 3.4% 4.0% 4.8% 5.0% 4.7% 6.9% 5.4% 6.8% 10.1% 10.9% 10.9% 11.2% 7.6%
Adrian van der Wal 5.7% 5.7% 7.6% 6.3% 8.2% 7.5% 6.7% 6.7% 7.8% 7.8% 8.8% 7.5% 6.7% 4.5% 2.5%
Marina Hutzler 1.3% 0.6% 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% 1.4% 3.0% 2.3% 2.7% 4.7% 6.4% 8.6% 13.7% 47.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.