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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+4.77vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.22+5.60vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.78+5.10vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+3.90vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.38+3.72vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.68+0.62vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College1.20+4.34vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.07+4.21vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.14+2.20vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.22-0.92vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.18-6.35vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.38-4.59vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont1.05-0.32vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09-1.41vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University1.97-5.36vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77-6.70vs Predicted
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17Boston College2.02-8.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.77Yale University2.8511.5%1st Place
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7.6Tufts University2.227.0%1st Place
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8.1University of Rhode Island2.786.7%1st Place
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7.9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.316.5%1st Place
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8.72Bowdoin College2.385.2%1st Place
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6.62Roger Williams University2.689.8%1st Place
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11.34Connecticut College1.202.5%1st Place
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12.21Northeastern University1.072.5%1st Place
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11.2Boston University1.142.6%1st Place
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9.08Brown University2.224.5%1st Place
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4.65Harvard University3.1816.0%1st Place
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7.41Dartmouth College2.387.4%1st Place
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12.68University of Vermont1.051.5%1st Place
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12.59U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.091.6%1st Place
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9.64Roger Williams University1.974.0%1st Place
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9.3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.774.5%1st Place
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8.18Boston College2.026.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| Carlos de Castro | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 10.7% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 14.2% | 18.8% |
| Tiare Sierra | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 10.2% |
| Mason Stang | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.7% |
| Justin Callahan | 16.0% | 15.2% | 14.2% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Michels | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 14.2% | 23.4% |
| Jack Derry | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 14.6% | 20.5% |
| Lucy Meagher | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 3.5% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.4% |
| Jack Redmond | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.