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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.07+4.30vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College2.46+5.29vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.71+3.47vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.00+1.60vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.84+1.22vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.36+1.81vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.92-1.11vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.93+1.29vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.20-0.72vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.65+0.27vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.45-3.51vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.36-4.03vs Predicted
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13Northwestern University0.70-0.13vs Predicted
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14Salve Regina University1.73-4.09vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.89-5.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.3Stanford University3.070.1%1st Place
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7.29Connecticut College2.460.1%1st Place
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6.47Tufts University2.710.1%1st Place
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5.6Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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6.22Harvard University2.840.1%1st Place
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7.81University of Rhode Island2.360.1%1st Place
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5.89Yale University2.920.1%1st Place
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9.29Old Dominion University1.930.0%1st Place
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8.28Bowdoin College2.200.1%1st Place
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10.27Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.650.0%1st Place
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7.49Dartmouth College2.450.1%1st Place
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7.97Northeastern University2.360.1%1st Place
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12.87Northwestern University0.700.0%1st Place
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9.91Salve Regina University1.730.0%1st Place
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9.34University of Vermont1.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wiley Rogers | 13.1% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Walter Henry | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 0.8% |
| Alex Fasolo | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 12.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Henry Burnes | 9.8% | 11.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Parker Colantuono | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.4% |
| Emma Cowles | 11.7% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 6.6% |
| Perham Black | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 2.7% |
| Alex Abate | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 16.1% | 11.7% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 2.4% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 1.7% |
| Marina Hutzler | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 51.7% |
| Peter Cronin | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 10.7% |
| Grace Gear | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 7.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.