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📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.9%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+6.73vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.85+3.80vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.22+6.42vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.68+2.73vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University1.97+4.65vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.78+2.22vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College1.20+4.35vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.38+0.40vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.18-4.32vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09+2.57vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.22-3.47vs Predicted
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12Boston College2.02-3.74vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77-3.78vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College2.38-6.63vs Predicted
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15Boston University1.14-3.85vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont1.05-3.29vs Predicted
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17Northeastern University1.07-4.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.73Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.2%1st Place
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5.8Yale University2.8511.3%1st Place
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9.42Brown University2.223.7%1st Place
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6.73Roger Williams University2.689.2%1st Place
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9.65Roger Williams University1.973.6%1st Place
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8.22University of Rhode Island2.785.3%1st Place
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11.35Connecticut College1.202.4%1st Place
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8.4Bowdoin College2.385.9%1st Place
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4.68Harvard University3.1817.6%1st Place
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12.57U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.091.7%1st Place
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7.53Tufts University2.226.9%1st Place
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8.26Boston College2.025.1%1st Place
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9.22Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.774.8%1st Place
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7.37Dartmouth College2.388.3%1st Place
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11.15Boston University1.143.2%1st Place
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12.71University of Vermont1.051.8%1st Place
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12.2Northeastern University1.072.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bruce | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Stephan Baker | 11.3% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Mason Stang | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% |
| Carlos de Castro | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Lucy Meagher | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 4.4% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 10.7% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Justin Callahan | 17.6% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Derry | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 13.4% | 21.2% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Jack Redmond | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 0.8% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 3.1% |
| William Michels | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 10.3% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 14.9% | 22.4% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 13.4% | 18.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.